With 6 women running, one of them left out of this photo, odds should be high for another female being nominated for President. Despite the odds, the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will not be a woman.
I know what you might be thinking. It’s too early, anything can happen, etc. You’re right, it is early, and anything could happen. Though history in some sense already tells us what will happen.
As I mentioned in a previous article about the pendulum theory, voters tend to go for the opposite of what they used last time to win. Last time Democrats used a strong experienced female candidate. Though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, Trump won the electoral college and became the President.
After using a strong female candidate to take on Trump, if voters try something different as they tend to do after an election loss, that something different will be a strong male candidate.
Most polls show voters want a candidate that will beat Trump, indicating a mood of wanting to fight rather than to unite. The candidate will be someone who projects more of a combative tone against President Trump.
Given voter preference and the mood of the country in general, it makes sense why candidates like Biden and Bernie are topping polls right now, beyond name recognition of course. They project themselves as strong men ready to take down the “big bad” President. Even with polls having a lot to do with name recognition right now, think of this article the beginning of next year. If Biden or Bernie are not still near the top of the poll, it’s going to be someone else who projects a stronger tone against Trump than those two.
The only scenario I could see a female being nominated to take on Trump is Kamala. People have a societal perception of black women as strong people, sometimes as a compliment and sometimes as an insult. It’s possible the perception could work to Kamala’s benefit in being viewed as strong enough to match the fighting energy a man could give towards Trump.
Given President Trump is like no other political opponent in history who will say and do just about anything to knock his opponents out, voters may feel even more anxious to find a fighter than in any previous election in history.
If that ends up being the case, the 2020 Presidential Election is gonna be a bloody battle.